Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
