Are You Not Being Entertained? The Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring

One of the biggest stories of the Premier League season so far is the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams have been scoring more from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 less overall.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking have seen a remarkable drop of 370 in open-play than this time last time out.

Regardless of the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from them outside of penalties, indicating the efficiency sides have been at devising strategies to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Tell an Interesting Narrative

Over 300 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far works out at 2.74 scores each match, if this persists for the entire campaign could be the smallest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

But just 196 goals scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the smallest for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign is also the only Premier League campaign to witness scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Sides Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to scoring from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen by far the biggest decrease, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolverhampton, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is predominantly a trend among London clubs, with five out of the capital's seven sides recording at least five less scores from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, this is primarily due to them netting many scores at the beginning of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to score in open play this campaign.

At the same time Manchester City have seen the largest rise, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season coming in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared newly promoted sides with the relegated sides that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have recorded three more goals in open-play than Southampton managed in their first 11 games on their way to relegation the previous campaign.

When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

United have recorded twice as many goals from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager took over, while Sunderland additionally prove more effective at scoring than the similar-colored team that went down.

Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've netted three fewer than last season, like Nottingham Forest, though this may result from the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – are this term's primary examples by netting less goals from open-play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the unique club to defy the pattern so far by achieving the contrary.

It remains to be seen to see if sides persist to place such emphasis on set-plays as matches continue or if they find again their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open-play also.