Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.