The Failed Bid to Stage Cop31 Looks Chaotic – But It May In Fact Be the Best Result Achievable

Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.